NFL Network and ESPN in Negotiations

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the NFL Network and ESPN have been in negotiations for months regarding a possible solution to improving the distribution of the NFL Network’s Thursday and Saturday evening games.

Apparently, the solution being discussed would involve the NFL Network games being shown on ESPN Classic.

An agreement between the NFL Network and ESPN would end a standoff between the NFL and the large cable operators in the US which have refused to pay a higher subscription fee.  The result was many loyal fans were left without access to the games, but did not protest to the extent that the league was hoping for.

Hopefully these negotiations will bring an end to this story that has seemingly dragged on for years.

Is There a ‘Tiger Effect’?

The Sports Economist recently posted a link to a Jennifer Brown’s study that claims that PGA Tour golfer’s scores are 0.8 strokes higher when Tiger Woods is present in a tournament.  It also claims that lower-skilled players are unaffected by Woods’ presence.

Personally, I would be curious to see what the scoring average is of the playing partners of Woods.  From my informal observations, it appears that Tiger’s presence, and all that comes with it (crowd/caddy/350 yard drives) has a negative effect on performance.  Perhaps this also contributes to Tiger’s stellar record when holding a 54-hole lead.

Is this why Tiger appeared to be such a fan of the number 1, 2, and 3 players in the world being grouped together for the first two rounds of the Open?

From my experience, when golfing with players that are head and shoulders above me in terms of skill, I become more aware of the shortcomings in my own game, my confidence decreases, and my performance suffers.  In a game as cerebral as golf, it should come as no surprise that Tiger’s mere presence has an adverse effect on the performance of his opponents.

Good luck today Robert Karlsson!

Is a Tiger Win at Torrey ‘Likely’?

A recent article by the Globe and Mail’s Lorne Rubenstein proposed some interesting ideas on the likelihood of a Tiger Woods victory at this weekend’s US Open at Torrey Pines.

Rubenstein, along with Temple University Mathematics professor John Allen Paulos propose that while Woods may in fact be ‘most likely’ to win relative to his opponents, the odds of a victory are still not significant enough to be considered ‘likely’.

The article states that Tiger has won 64 or 221, or 29 per cent of the tournaments he has participated in as a professional.  In regards to just major championships, Tiger has won 13 of 45, or 29 per cent.  In comparison, the world’s number two ranked player, Phil Mickelson has won 9 per cent of his tournaments played. Lorena Ochoa, the most dominant player on the LPGA tour has won 17 per cent of her tournaments played.

It is incredible how much influence the media’s perception of Wood’s dominance can lead one to believe that a Tiger victory is inevitable and highly likely while he may simply be the best option among many.

Enjoy the Open!

Do Teams ‘Tank’ For Draft Position?

I came across a few interesting articles today that deal with the issue of draft lotteries, and the impact they have on team performance. I became interested in this topic while observing the Maple Leafs this past season. There was much discussion in hockey mad Toronto regarding whether or not the Leafs should have ‘tanked’ and lost games on purpose in order to increase their odds of obtaining the first pick in the draft, likely to be Steve Stamkos of the Sarnia Sting.

Initially I thought it was just a typical reaction of delusional Leaf fans looking for a quick fix for their depleted roster. However, some of the research I came across today has swayed me to believe that teams’ performance does in fact change when eliminated from the possibility of post-season play.

Justin Trogdon and Beck Taylor’s article in the Journal of Labor Economics studied team performance in the NBA following adjustments to the draft lottery structure. What they found was that as the rewards for poor performance increased, so did poor performance. This ‘race to the bottom’ forces one to examine what type of system increases parity, and improves player distribution, while maintaining the integrity of the game.

Major League Baseball grants draft position strictly on win/loss record, as does the NFL. The NHL holds a lottery only for the first pick, and the NBA for picks 1-11.

David Berri at the Wages of Wins Journal, as well as in his interview with MSNBC, contrasts the North American model of draft lotteries with that of European sport where poor teams are relegated to lower level leagues, while strong performers are promoted to higher level leagues. The European model appears to maintain team interest, and season long motivation, but does little to ensure competitive balance.

The biggest question I was left with following these articles was: if teams are losing in order to increase the likelihood of a favourable draft position, who is pulling the strings? Is it the players who have much to gain from statistical performance bonuses and salary negotiations? Is it the coaches who are hired and fired consistently based on team performance? Or upper management who can manipulate the roster in order to lose games?

None of these systems appear to fulfill the balancing act of maintaining competitive balance, while avoiding ‘tanking’ but the NBA system, where the worst win/loss team rarely gets the first pick appears to be the best system at the present time.

Celtics/Lakers Makes for Good TV

The Associated Press is reporting Thursday night’s Celtics/Lakers Game 1 received an 8.7 rating.  The 8.7 is up 38 per cent over last year’s Cavaliers/Spurs Game 1.  It is also the highest rating since the 2004 Lakers/Pistons series.

In order to put things in context, here are the average ratings of other Celtics/Lakers finals match-ups.

1. 1984 - 12.3
2. 1985 - 12.7
3. 1987 - 15.9

It should also be noted that since 2002 only the Lakers/Pistons series in 2004 had an average rating over 10.  This was following a stretch of 20 consecutive years from 1982 to 2002 when the average was over 10 each year. (Source: Wikipedia)

It appears that this series is coming at a perfect time for the NBA.  Since the Shaq/Kobe divorce the league has been desperate for any kind of entertainment value in the Finals, and it appears to have that in the Lakers/Celtics rivalry.  It would appear that if this series is able to stretch itself out to 6 or 7 games, the NBA might be able to recapture some of the buzz it has lost in the post Jordan era.

Justification for Another Canadian Team?

The Toronto Star published data from a ’secret’ NHL report detailing ticket revenues from the 30 NHL clubs.

The report states that the six Canadian teams accounted for 31 per cent of league wide ticket revenues.

This report is sure to strengthen the argument that one or more franchises should be relocated to Canada. While on the surface this seems to be the case, it should also be noted that: 1. Ticket revenue is not the only source of income for NHL clubs. 2. The value of the Canadian dollar plays an important role in the strength of these numbers. 3. It was not that long ago that the Nordiques left Quebec City, and the Jets left Winnipeg.

While caution must be taken in regards to the relocation of franchises, it is tough to imagine a situation in which franchises in Quebec City/Winnipeg/Hamilton or Kitchener-Waterloo would not have a better chance at success than markets such as Nashville/Miami/Tampa/Atlanta.

Fantasy Baseball Dispute Dismissed

The Supreme Court in the US refused to get involved in the ongoing dispute between MLB regarding the usage of MLB players in fantasy games.

According the the New York Times report, the First Amendment trumped MLB’s right to publicity.

While this news story is not likely to make make headlines across the sports world, it is significant in that the $1.5 billion fantasy sports industry can essentially operate completely independent of the sports leagues in question.

The New Face of Ticket Scalping

As a follower of sports, and a student of sports business/economics, I have taken a keen interest in the emergence of the secondary ticket market online.

E:60 did a recent piece on how the industry has changed in recent years, largely as a result one individuals ability to write computer software, and employ overseas employees in such a manner that all tickets sold on Ticketmaster are purchased in mere seconds, with little opportunity for everyday fans to purchase tickets at face value.

The E:60 piece can be seen here.

Some argue this is free market economics at its finest, while some view it as the monopolization of an industry.

What I would like to see is teams take things into their own hands, and sell all seats via auction. The teams could set a floor on the price of their tickets, while the fans/scalpers could essentially determine the fair market price of the ticket, with the teams taking advantage of the increased price as a result of the auction. Teams could also employ a ‘Buy It Now’ function like eBay, where purchasers pay a premium for guaranteeing a ticket.

This will definitely be a story to keep an eye on in coming months/years, as it appears this issue is headed to the courts soon.

Bills in Toronto Ticket Prices Announced

The Toronto group which has brought the Bills to Toronto for eight games over the next five seasons announced how the tickets will be priced.

According to the Globe and Mail, the tickets will range from $55 to $295, and will average out at around $183. These figures do not include the luxury boxes, or VIP seats. It should also be noted that the average ticket for a Bills games in Buffalo comes in at around $51.

Other details regarding the arrangement between the Bills and the Toronto group have also been released. It has been confirmed that the Toronto group paid the Bills $78 million to essentially lease the games, while sponsorship sales are being coordinated jointly between the two groups.

Is it possible that the real winners here are the Miami Dolphins? The Dolphins will get to play the Bills indoors rather than at Ralph Wilson Stadium, along with getting a share of what is to be an enormous gate

Perhaps this type of arrangement will become more commonplace in markets where teams are attempting to enhanced their regional appeal.

I have been particularly intrigued with observing the two sides of this story unfold. Living in between Toronto and Buffalo, I am a frequent listener of both Toronto and Buffalo sports talk stations. Generally speaking, the folks in Toronto think these games are only the beginning of the the NFL eventually settling in Toronto, while the folks in Buffalo are extremely paranoid this is the beginning of the end. The juxtaposition of the emotional state of both cities has been, and will continue to be a story to watch.

True Dedication

My apologies for the lack of content the past few days. My wife have been in the process of moving into our new home, and had been without internet for a few days.

In other news, check out this article about a 12 year-old Connecticut boy who finally stopped wearing his Brett Favre jersey after 1,581 consecutive days. I am kind of torn between thinking this is kind of cool, or kind of creepy.